The flow of energy, materials, and money, with a strong theme of electrification, and asking the question of what is the better story — for a better politics — to get faster climate action.
Welcome to Substack, Saul. I'll work hard to spread your insights and hope you can join me in a Sustain What conversation soon to explore next steps electrifying most things.
Hi Saul, I enjoyed reading this Substack post and believe in mass electrification as a result of one of your (way) earlier writings. I read the 17 comments now posted. Seems like you will be getting considerable “help” and some denial from alt. experts. All welcome, I’m sure. I won’t be one of those.
I will say thank you. Because of your advocacy, my current home has rooftop solar with Enphase inverters and battery storage, home heating/cooling by Mitsubishi heat pump (replaced gas furnace), electric car (Ioniq5), Enphase car charger in garage and zero dollar annual electricity bill from PGE. Looking forward to your posts on this platform . . . Barry
Ooh this was a very pleasant surprise in my inbox! And stoked to hear about the Korean translation of Electrify, my parents can finally understand what I do for a job 😅
Looking forward very much to following your substack.
After reading The Big Switch, we took the step of removing gas, putting in heat pumps for hot water and hydronic floor heating, and we’ve had an EV for some time now. We pay very little for electricity as it’s all run off our PV installation.
I think there will be enormous resistance from electricity wholesalers to the implementation of distributed generation and storage ( residential PV and Batteries) but it is clearly the cheapest and most rapid path to electrification. It’s becoming evident that the cost of transmission with large scale generation and storage is very high, and meeting a lot of local community resistance. Local generation and stronger sends like the way to go.
Unfortunately, a substack like yours will bring out the conspiracy theorists ( see comments above!!!) but I’m really glad to see you keep pushing so hard for the transition to renewable electricity generation. Good luck!
Great idea Saul. Please explore the political and corporate disincentives stopping government action. The battery incentive is great but it's still ground up.
Thank you Saul, good stuff and looking forward to more.
Whilst I haven't read your books (remiss of me) and have only a couple of your shorter essays up my sleeve the key messages aligned with my own thinking, only with a lot more clarity and credibility. If only for the reassurance that pushing ahead with electrification and RE does make sense when examined in far greater depth than I am capable of you have been a good influence. (Energy R&D, even when undertaken as the empty gesture alternative to actual commitment, really can and does deliver above and beyond.)
I don't think The Transition (whatever the name) is stoppable but it will still take foresight, planning and political commitment to do so in a timely manner and to decarbonise those 'but we are essential, we don't want to and we donate big to politicians' sectors and industries. Some may - probably will - need fixes that have serious upfront costs. Yet like with RE electricity I am confident the real doomists, the 'we'll all be rooned without fossil fuels' pundits are wrong; if these 'hard' sectors have to do it they will, and very likely we'll end up with options that work better than anything before, without economic decline or disaster other than to dirty industries that have managed to evade accountability for far too long, that would not survive economically if not for the absence of legal accountability - and those investors will just shift their focus and survive just fine.
Fabulous to read you on Substack. Your book "The Big Switch" was inspirational to the point I've got solar on the roof helping to power an EV in the driveway with everything else powered by rechargeable batteries.
Interesting to see what you are reading and your thoughts re, flows of energy and materials, economy and social/political evolution.
I'm reading "Stellar: A world beyond limits and how to get there." by James Arbib, Tony Seba. The book laments our extractive world and suggests a stellar world founded on wind energy, solar energy, batteries, precision fermentation, EV transport as a service (autonomous ride hailing). All framed amidst the inevitability of Artificial Labour (humanoid robots) and AI in general.
Heavily researched does not guarantee correct. Even one erroneous assumption in common renders pages of references, papers and citations useless. CAGW’s GHE contains three such assumptions.
GHE claims without it Earth becomes 33 C cooler, a 255 K, -18 C, ball of ice.
Wrong.
Naked Earth would be much like the Moon, barren, 400 K lit side, 100 K dark.
TFK_bams09 heat balance graphic uses the same 63 twice violating GAAP and calculating out of thin air a 396 BB/333 “back”/63 net GHE radiative forcing loop violating LoT 1 & 2.
Wrong.
Likewise, the ubiquitous plethora of clones.
GHE requires Earth to radiate “extra” energy as a BB.
Wrong.
A BB requires all energy leaving the system to do so by radiation. Per TFK_bams09 60% leaves by kinetic modes, i.e. conduction, convection, advection and latent rendering BB impossible.
GHE is bogus and CAGW a scam so alarmists must resort to fear mongering, lies, lawsuits, censorship and violence.
Burning NG in a modern furnace or water heater loses about 15% of the energy up the flue.
Converting NG to electricity loses about 65% up the chimney and out the cooling system before it even leaves the plant site.
Dumb!
Natural gas at $6/E6Btu burned in a modern condensing furnace (air) or water heater with 85% efficiency has a net delivered cost of $7/E6Btu.
Electricity at $0.15/kWh and 100% efficiency powering a furnace (air) or water heater has a net delivered cost of about $40/E6Btu.
A heat pump using $0.15/kWh and a COP of 3.5 has a net delivered energy cost of about $12/E6Btu. The colder the weather the lower the COP and higher the net cost.
If some salesman suggests replacing NG w heat pump & does not know this he is uninformed.
If he suggests replacing NG w heat pump & does know this, he is a crook.
Sitting up straight and listening mate. :-) Ready,
Please take a look at this when you have a moment. I’d prefer to bypass the usual noise around fleeting news cycles and superficial leadership narratives. Energy flows are a valuable lens—but I suggest broadening it to include **network theory**, particularly the work of Barabási and others in the field.
Apologies if this lacks precision—I've been disoriented from travel, jet lag, and what I’d call “news dysphoria.”. I just rewrote with AI help as I was rambling.
To the point:
There’s a **network logic** behind everything—objects, people, capital. What you’re exploring connects directly to this. I’ve been deep in that space myself, focused on AI-powered smart grids, data center architecture, and energy routing.
I think this framework complements your line of thought. Let me know what resonates. Happy to discuss or refine further. People: Shoot it down, modulate or enhance but FFS dont just sit there.
Welcome to Substack, Saul. I'll work hard to spread your insights and hope you can join me in a Sustain What conversation soon to explore next steps electrifying most things.
The GIGO lie of climate science.
Garbage in – 1
GHE theory claims without it Earth would be 33 C colder becoming a -18 C ice ball.
Garbage in – 2
Ubiquitous GHE heat balance graphics violate GAAP & both LoT 1 & 2.
Garbage in – 3
GHE theory claims Earth upwells as a BB creating “extra” energy out of thin air violating LoT 1 & back radiation violating LoT 2.
= Garbage out
Mankind’s CO2 adversely affects the thermal behavior of the atmosphere.
GHE = Bogus & CAGW = scam.
Here for all of it, as ever. Let's go.
Hi Saul, I enjoyed reading this Substack post and believe in mass electrification as a result of one of your (way) earlier writings. I read the 17 comments now posted. Seems like you will be getting considerable “help” and some denial from alt. experts. All welcome, I’m sure. I won’t be one of those.
I will say thank you. Because of your advocacy, my current home has rooftop solar with Enphase inverters and battery storage, home heating/cooling by Mitsubishi heat pump (replaced gas furnace), electric car (Ioniq5), Enphase car charger in garage and zero dollar annual electricity bill from PGE. Looking forward to your posts on this platform . . . Barry
Ooh this was a very pleasant surprise in my inbox! And stoked to hear about the Korean translation of Electrify, my parents can finally understand what I do for a job 😅
All the best for the book tour ⚡️
I love a good Sankey:
https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-update-2024/energy-flows
note how electric power station own use & losses are 1.6 times actual electricity end use
here's the pdf of the sankey https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-08/AES%202022-23%20Energy%20Flows.pdf
these are from the web page Australian Energy Update 2024 which is mostly just a bunch of variegated energy data files
Hi Saul … I been having fun on Substack too. I think you will do well on the platform. Check out my Founder Update #1: https://www.remorandom.com/p/founder-update-1
So good to see you here, Saul. We need your brilliant mind explaining the urgency of electrification to the masses.
Thanks Saul. Looking f0rward to more of these!
Hi Saul,
Looking forward very much to following your substack.
After reading The Big Switch, we took the step of removing gas, putting in heat pumps for hot water and hydronic floor heating, and we’ve had an EV for some time now. We pay very little for electricity as it’s all run off our PV installation.
I think there will be enormous resistance from electricity wholesalers to the implementation of distributed generation and storage ( residential PV and Batteries) but it is clearly the cheapest and most rapid path to electrification. It’s becoming evident that the cost of transmission with large scale generation and storage is very high, and meeting a lot of local community resistance. Local generation and stronger sends like the way to go.
Unfortunately, a substack like yours will bring out the conspiracy theorists ( see comments above!!!) but I’m really glad to see you keep pushing so hard for the transition to renewable electricity generation. Good luck!
Party on Saul
Great idea Saul. Please explore the political and corporate disincentives stopping government action. The battery incentive is great but it's still ground up.
Thank you Saul, good stuff and looking forward to more.
Whilst I haven't read your books (remiss of me) and have only a couple of your shorter essays up my sleeve the key messages aligned with my own thinking, only with a lot more clarity and credibility. If only for the reassurance that pushing ahead with electrification and RE does make sense when examined in far greater depth than I am capable of you have been a good influence. (Energy R&D, even when undertaken as the empty gesture alternative to actual commitment, really can and does deliver above and beyond.)
I don't think The Transition (whatever the name) is stoppable but it will still take foresight, planning and political commitment to do so in a timely manner and to decarbonise those 'but we are essential, we don't want to and we donate big to politicians' sectors and industries. Some may - probably will - need fixes that have serious upfront costs. Yet like with RE electricity I am confident the real doomists, the 'we'll all be rooned without fossil fuels' pundits are wrong; if these 'hard' sectors have to do it they will, and very likely we'll end up with options that work better than anything before, without economic decline or disaster other than to dirty industries that have managed to evade accountability for far too long, that would not survive economically if not for the absence of legal accountability - and those investors will just shift their focus and survive just fine.
Fabulous to read you on Substack. Your book "The Big Switch" was inspirational to the point I've got solar on the roof helping to power an EV in the driveway with everything else powered by rechargeable batteries.
Interesting to see what you are reading and your thoughts re, flows of energy and materials, economy and social/political evolution.
I'm reading "Stellar: A world beyond limits and how to get there." by James Arbib, Tony Seba. The book laments our extractive world and suggests a stellar world founded on wind energy, solar energy, batteries, precision fermentation, EV transport as a service (autonomous ride hailing). All framed amidst the inevitability of Artificial Labour (humanoid robots) and AI in general.
Heavily researched does not guarantee correct. Even one erroneous assumption in common renders pages of references, papers and citations useless. CAGW’s GHE contains three such assumptions.
GHE claims without it Earth becomes 33 C cooler, a 255 K, -18 C, ball of ice.
Wrong.
Naked Earth would be much like the Moon, barren, 400 K lit side, 100 K dark.
TFK_bams09 heat balance graphic uses the same 63 twice violating GAAP and calculating out of thin air a 396 BB/333 “back”/63 net GHE radiative forcing loop violating LoT 1 & 2.
Wrong.
Likewise, the ubiquitous plethora of clones.
GHE requires Earth to radiate “extra” energy as a BB.
Wrong.
A BB requires all energy leaving the system to do so by radiation. Per TFK_bams09 60% leaves by kinetic modes, i.e. conduction, convection, advection and latent rendering BB impossible.
GHE is bogus and CAGW a scam so alarmists must resort to fear mongering, lies, lawsuits, censorship and violence.
Burning NG in a modern furnace or water heater loses about 15% of the energy up the flue.
Converting NG to electricity loses about 65% up the chimney and out the cooling system before it even leaves the plant site.
Dumb!
Natural gas at $6/E6Btu burned in a modern condensing furnace (air) or water heater with 85% efficiency has a net delivered cost of $7/E6Btu.
Electricity at $0.15/kWh and 100% efficiency powering a furnace (air) or water heater has a net delivered cost of about $40/E6Btu.
A heat pump using $0.15/kWh and a COP of 3.5 has a net delivered energy cost of about $12/E6Btu. The colder the weather the lower the COP and higher the net cost.
If some salesman suggests replacing NG w heat pump & does not know this he is uninformed.
If he suggests replacing NG w heat pump & does know this, he is a crook.
Sitting up straight and listening mate. :-) Ready,
Please take a look at this when you have a moment. I’d prefer to bypass the usual noise around fleeting news cycles and superficial leadership narratives. Energy flows are a valuable lens—but I suggest broadening it to include **network theory**, particularly the work of Barabási and others in the field.
Apologies if this lacks precision—I've been disoriented from travel, jet lag, and what I’d call “news dysphoria.”. I just rewrote with AI help as I was rambling.
To the point:
There’s a **network logic** behind everything—objects, people, capital. What you’re exploring connects directly to this. I’ve been deep in that space myself, focused on AI-powered smart grids, data center architecture, and energy routing.
This material has been particularly valuable:
* [Matthew Jackson’s research archive](https://web.stanford.edu/~jacksonm/papersarticles.html)
Strong foundation in social and economic networks. Essential reading.
* [Santa Fe Institute opening lecture](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MH_jQHhWJu8)
A well-framed introduction to complex systems.
* [Stanford lecture series on Social and Economic Networks](https://www.youtube.com/@socialandeconomicnetworks4586)
Clear, rigorous, and applicable across domains.
I think this framework complements your line of thought. Let me know what resonates. Happy to discuss or refine further. People: Shoot it down, modulate or enhance but FFS dont just sit there.